What is the problem?
A new virus has been discovered, named SARS-COV2. It spreads from Human- Human causing a respiratory illness named COVID19. Since it is new, we do not have any immunity against it. There are many diseases in the world, why is this one given so much attention? Since there is no immunity to this disease it has the potential to infect up to 70% of the world according to experts. There is no specific cure for the infection. |
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The death rate for COVID19 doesn't seem high; why the fuss?
Yes, the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID19 (1-2%) is not as high as SARS(9.6%) or MERS(34.4%), but it is much higher than the seasonal Flu (0.1%). The fatality rate on its own is not the major issue - the biggest problem that we face with COVID19 is that up to 20% of the people who get infected will require hospitalization, and between 5-8% will need critical care (ICU). If 20% of infected people need hospitalization in a short space of time (e.g over a stretch of 3 months) then that number will overwhelm even the best healthcare systems in the world. |
So the deeper problem is that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed if we allow the disease to spread too rapidly...why is that a problem?
When the healthcare system is overwhelmed there are not enough hospital beds, medical personal, medications or other medical resources to treat everybody appropriately. When resources are limited then they have to be allocated to those who need it most and who have the best prognosis - this means that some people will not get the treatment that they would usually get under normal circumstances. For example: if a burger restaurant has a capacity to make 100 burgers a day they can easily serve 3000 people in a month (if they serve only 100 people per day), but they will not be able to cope if even 1500 people try to be served all in one day - they will be overwhelmed and 1400 people will just not get burgers on that day. When the Healthcare system is overwhelmed all patients are affected; this includes patients who are suffering from Non-COVID19 related illnesses, like people with strokes, heart-attacks, trauma etc...there won't be enough hospital beds and ICU beds available for everybody if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. This leads to "preventable deaths" - deaths that could normally have been prevented if the patients received the correct care. That is a tragedy. Have a look at Italy's figures compared to Germany. Although both countries have a similar number of infections they have a vastly different death rate. One of the main reasons for this is because Germany's healthcare system has not been as overwhelmed as Italy's. |
So how can we stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed?
We need to slow down the spread of the disease. This will slow down the need for hospital beds allowing our healthcare system to cope with all patients in a controlled and appropriate manner, giving everybody the best care and attention that is available. We also need to prevent spread to those who are at greatest risk hospitalization and death if they get infected. This will also slow down the need for hospitalization thereby reducing the load on the healthcare system. |
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Who are most at risk of hospitalization and death?
People who have chronic illness People over 60 years old I'm young and healthy, why should I be restricted? Although young and healthy people are less likely to face hospitalization or death, they can still get the infection and spread it to others, and they are by no means immune to the sever effects of the disease. |
So the actual aim is to slow down the spread of the illness - how is the illness spread then?
COVID19 is spread when droplets coming from the mouth and nose of a person who has the virus come into contact with the mouth, nose and eyes of another person. The infected person touches their face and so the droplets come onto their hands and can then be transferred to any surface they touch - like handles, railings, papers, counters, pens etc. These droplets can survive on some surfaces for up to 3 days. |
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These droplets, which are invisibly small, can also settle from a cough, sneeze or even talking, onto surfaces around an infected person.
Other people can get these droplets on their hands by touching these surfaces, or shaking-hands with somebody who has the droplets on their hands. When this uninfected person touches their eyes, nose or face they transfer these droplets into the body and become infected. This is why vigorous hand-washing is so important.
The droplets can also be transferred from an infected person to another person directly just by being within 2 meters of an infected person.
Some people who have COVID19 do not develop symptoms, meaning they don't get sick, or get very mild symptoms, yet they are still able to spread the disease to others. So just because you are not sick at all, or you only feel a little bit sick it doesn't mean that you don't have COVID19, and you can still spread it to others.
Other people can get these droplets on their hands by touching these surfaces, or shaking-hands with somebody who has the droplets on their hands. When this uninfected person touches their eyes, nose or face they transfer these droplets into the body and become infected. This is why vigorous hand-washing is so important.
The droplets can also be transferred from an infected person to another person directly just by being within 2 meters of an infected person.
Some people who have COVID19 do not develop symptoms, meaning they don't get sick, or get very mild symptoms, yet they are still able to spread the disease to others. So just because you are not sick at all, or you only feel a little bit sick it doesn't mean that you don't have COVID19, and you can still spread it to others.
Why have gatherings been stopped?
Because of the manner which COVID19 spreads - through close proximity to others and contact with people and surfaces where many other people have been - this makes gatherings particularly risky. Sports gatherings, religious gatherings and many other social gatherings have already been implicated in accelerating the spread of COVID19. The larger the gathering, the higher the risk of spreading the disease.
Because of the manner which COVID19 spreads - through close proximity to others and contact with people and surfaces where many other people have been - this makes gatherings particularly risky. Sports gatherings, religious gatherings and many other social gatherings have already been implicated in accelerating the spread of COVID19. The larger the gathering, the higher the risk of spreading the disease.
What is the best way to slow the spread of COVID19?
The best method at our disposal is social distancing. By reducing the frequency and duration of human-human contact the rate of spread should decline. Eventually, once a sufficient number of people have had the disease it will become difficult for the disease to spread because there will be less infected people and less people who can catch the infection. |
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When will conditions return to normal?
It is difficult to predict that at these early stages of COVID19. Normality can return when herd-immunity is reached. This happens when so many people in a population (herd) are immune to a disease that it dies out before it can find people to spread to. The percentage of people who need to be immune to a disease for her immunity to be reached depends on the virulence of the disease and how well people develop immunity. Currently we do not know how well we will develop immunity to COVID19 so we cannot reliably predict when we will return to normal.
Until then we should learn to navigate the risks by introducing precautionary measures in our homes and workplaces.
It is difficult to predict that at these early stages of COVID19. Normality can return when herd-immunity is reached. This happens when so many people in a population (herd) are immune to a disease that it dies out before it can find people to spread to. The percentage of people who need to be immune to a disease for her immunity to be reached depends on the virulence of the disease and how well people develop immunity. Currently we do not know how well we will develop immunity to COVID19 so we cannot reliably predict when we will return to normal.
Until then we should learn to navigate the risks by introducing precautionary measures in our homes and workplaces.